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2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Johnny Davis

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2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Johnny Davis

A look at his strengths, weaknesses and what to expect

David Sajdak
Jun 10, 2022
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Strengths:

  • athleticism

  • slashing

  • finishing

  • midrange shot-making

  • defense

Weaknesses:

  • shooting consistency

  • shot-selection

Like Jaden Ivey, Johnny Davis’ game has taken a leap after spending last summer representing the United States in the FIBA U19 World Cup. The 20-year-old Wisconsin product is uber-athletic and uses his explosiveness and strength to generate easy paint touches (he got to the rim 143 times per barttorvik, 31.5% assisted). From there, Davis has shown the ability to finish at the basket and occasionally find perimeter shooters, averaging 1.21 PPP around the rim according to synergy and a 14.8 AST%.

As a shot-maker, Davis has shown an affinity for pull-up midrange shots and the in-between range in particular, but he did have a tendency to throw up some really tough, forced shots, resulting in some poor efficiency in the midrange (0.619 PPP on jump shots <17 feet from the rim) despite his shotmaking talent from the area. Trading some of these for more attempts at the rim will be a key development to monitor as he enters the NBA.

While some of Davis’s inefficiency stems from struggles to create separation on some of his shots (0.667 PPP on all jump shots off the dribble), there are some low-hanging fruit he can address to improve his efficiency. For example, he tried to draw fouls on jumpers WAY too many times, altering his shot and resulting in some bad misses. Davis will likely also be one of the biggest beneficiaries of improved spacing. On many occasions, he’d get downhill and be forced to pull up for a tough shot because of how clogged the paint was and with no good options on the perimeter. Obviously, the clearest way for Davis to improve his efficiency will just be by taking smarter shots. His touch and footwork should be good enough for him to be a dangerous scorer from midrange once he learns to pick and choose when to rise and fire from there.

Davis probably could’ve passed out to Hepburn in this situation, but the spacing is terrible otherwise
Davis made this shot, but again, gross

As a perimeter shooter, Davis is a little bit inconsistent. Some of the shot-selection warts discussed earlier pop up again off the dribble, but Davis is a pretty solid shooter off the catch (0.909 PPP guarded, 1.429 PPP unguarded). His free throw percentage was in the high 70s and my 3pt model thinks he’ll hover around league average from distance.

Finally, Davis has demonstrated a willingness and intensity on the defensive side of the floor that, combined with his off-ball awareness and physical tools, make him a big plus on that end. He’s a capable and willing point-of-attack defender, mirroring ballhandlers with his lateral quickness, chasing them around screens with signs of excellent screen navigation, and walling them off with his strength. Off the ball, he’s a real pest at the nail or “one defender away” and he likes to get his hands in for digs. Overall, he’s positionally sound (though he can get in trouble gambling at times) and likely to be a good defender in the NBA from the jump.

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Johnny Davis 2021-22 Midrange Game
11:50 PM ∙ Apr 24, 2022
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Clips Account @Clips_ds8
Slashing
4:38 AM ∙ Apr 25, 2022
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Clips Account @Clips_ds8
Defense
3:57 PM ∙ Jun 10, 2022
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Clips Account @Clips_ds8
Shot selection, lack of separation
3:57 PM ∙ Jun 10, 2022

Recent Reports:

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  • Jabari Smith


Data Viz

Border thickness denotes shot volume

Projected NBA 3P%

Worst Case: 28.2%

Likely: 32.74% - 36.58%

Best Case: 41.03%

*One Number Guess: 35.01%

*MAE of 2.5

*Draft Model Results

Role Probabilities:

Star: 4.19%

Starter: 47.71%

Rotation: 36.72%

Bust: 11.39%

Model Score: 6.02

*Full draft model writeup to be released day prior to the draft

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