2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Jalen Duren
A look at his strengths, weaknesses, and what to expect
Strengths:
rim protection
defensive versatility
athleticism
finishing
offensive rebounding
passing flashes
Weaknesses:
posting-up (footwork and touch)
shooting
For some reason, Jalen Duren continues to be massively underrated. We’re talking about an 18-year-old athletic marvel who offers elite rim protection and defensive versatility, is a monster on the glass, has shown passing chops, and consensus has him mid to late lottery right now. Duren blocked 2.1 shots per game at Memphis this year, sporting an impressive 9.9% block rate and anchoring a Memphis defense that ranked 33rd in all of college basketball this past season (according to kenpom). He’s seemingly impossible to keep off the glass, ranking 2nd in the American Athletic Conference in both offensive and defensive rebound percentage.
On offense, Duren’s passing has flashed most in the short roll where he consistently (and quickly) made the correct reads though his passing wasn’t always accurate. He also proved to be a weapon as a high-low passer, finding a sealed Malcolm Dandridge numerous times down low. Duren’s strength and athleticism make him a monstrous finisher, and he averaged 1.444 PPP (93rd percentile) on shots around the basket and 1.341 PPP (90th percentile) in transition. Duren isn’t very effective as a post-up big, averaging only 0.831 PPP (30th percentile) on post-up shot attempts, and he seems to lack footwork and touch down low. In the NBA, you can expect to see him as the pNr roll man in the majority of possessions and it’s easy to see him as an elite lob threat once he enters the league (especially if he’s paired with a cerebral passer). As a shooter, Duren didn’t show off much at Memphis (just wait till you see his shot chart below), but in some of his pre-college tape, he had a pretty nice midrange turnaround that he liked to go to.
Recent Reports:
Data Viz
Projected NBA 3P%
Worst Case: 23.75%
Likely: 29.12% - 34.97%
Best Case: 38.61%
*One Number Guess: 32.36%
*MAE of 2.5
*Draft Model Results
Role Probabilities:
Star: 22.87%
Starter: 46.78%
Rotation: 22.84%
Bust: 4.76%
Model Score: 7.22
*Full draft model writeup to be released day prior to the draft