2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report: Chet Holmgren
A look at his strengths, weaknesses and what to expect
transition game (grab & go)
The general public was introduced to Chet Holmgren when he embarrassed Steph Curry a few times at his own camp. Now, he has the chance to go number 1 overall in the draft and line up against Curry in an NBA game. Holmgren stands at an impressive 7-1 with a 7-6 wingspan. Like so many prospects before him, his weight and thin frame have been pointed out as a serious area of concern. While I originally thought to include it as a weakness, I quickly realized that Chet’s frame helps him much more than it hinders him.
Unlike other thin players, Chet is far from afraid of contact. In fact, there are many times when he seeks it out, and his body is never really thrown off by it. It’s almost as if it’s glued to the opposition player. I mean just look at this possession against fellow projected lottery pick, Jalen Duren. The stats reflect Holmgren’s ability to play through and thrive in physical situations as well. He averaged 1.64 PPP on shots around the basket, good enough to put him in the 99th (!!) percentile amongst college players this year. He also held opposing bigs to a respectable 0.842 PPP as a post-up defender, more than holding his own down low.
Holmgren’s defense in general is a big strength and it’s where his wiry, long frame helps him most. He’s a very good rim protector and can switch out to the perimeter effectively when needed, making him a versatile defender. Chet can quickly turn defense into offense, using a shot he blocked as an opportunity to run in transition, where he’s effective both as a passer and finisher. Holmgren shot it well this year (39% on 3.3 attempts per game), but his free throw shooting is reason to remain somewhat bearish on his shooting prospects. If anything, I think he’ll be an at least average shooter, probably good enough to keep getting relatively hard contests, with the same ability to put it on the floor and attack closeouts.
Projected NBA 3P%
Worst Case: 27.26%
Likely: 32.04% - 36.6%
Best Case: 40.47%
*One Guess Number: 34.2%
*MAE of 2.5
*Draft Model Results
Model Score: 7.66
*Full draft model writeup to be released day prior to the draft