2022 NBA Draft Scouting Report: AJ Griffin
A look at his strengths, weaknesses, and what to expect
AJ Griffin can finally breathe a sigh of relief. After missing nearly two years in high school and part of preseason this year to injury, Griffin is heading into the summer and NBA draft with what appears to be a clean bill of health. When he is healthy, Griffin has proven to be extremely talented. At Duke, he shot 44.7% from three on 4.1 attempts per game, showcasing the ability to hit threes off catch, off movement, and off the dribble. He’s got excellent touch on floaters and from the mid-range, allowing him to punish defenders in drop coverage. His body stiffness has made it harder for him to shake defenders and get to the rim, but he’s proven to be a good finisher when he does get there, shooting 72.4% on 58 shots at the rim, 45.2% of which were assisted according to barttorvik. As a passer, Griffin had a lot of encouraging reads in both pre-college and Duke tape, giving me a lot more confidence in his passing ability than his 6.95 AST% would suggest. At Duke, he was relegated to a purely spot-up role and as I detailed in my preseason thread, I’d love to see him more in actions that get him on the move against a tilted defense.
On the defensive end of the floor, Griffin can fall victim to his body stiffness again, with his slow lateral quickness being exposed by quicker players. However, as he continues to get healthier, I expect him to regain more of the athleticism and defensive tools he flashed in high school. He doesn’t seem to suffer from lack of defensive effort either and he was mostly fine on that side of the floor for Duke. If he does regain that lateral quickness, I expect him to be a plus defender in the NBA.
Projected NBA 3P%
Worst Case: 30.67%
Likely: 34.93% - 38.42%
Best Case: 42.25%
*One Guess Number: 35.82%
*MAE of 2.5
*Draft Model Results
Model Score: 6.35
*Full draft model writeup to be released day prior to the draft